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The models are validated in a period characterized by unprecedented turmoil and tested in a period of bear markets, allowing the assessment of whether the predictions are good even when the market direction changes between the validation and test periods. The classification and regression methods use attributes from trading and network activity for the period from August 15, to March 03, , with the test sample beginning on April 13, The trading strategies are built on model assembling.

The ensemble assuming that five models produce identical signals Ensemble 5 achieves the best performance for ethereum and litecoin, with annualized Sharpe ratios of These positive results support the claim that machine learning provides robust techniques for exploring the predictability of cryptocurrencies and for devising profitable trading strategies in these markets, even under adverse market conditions. Introduction Since its inception, coinciding with the international crisis of and the associated lack of confidence in the financial system, bitcoin has gained an important place in the international financial landscape, attracting extensive media coverage, as well as the attention of regulators, government institutions, institutional and individual investors, academia, and the public in general.

The success of bitcoin, measured by its rapid market capitalization growth and price appreciation, led to the emergence of a large number of other cryptocurrencies e. By now, the market of cryptocurrencies has become one of the largest unregulated markets in the world Foley et al. Although initially designed to be a peer-to-peer electronic medium of payment Nakamoto , bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies created afterward, rapidly gained the reputation of being pure speculative assets.

Their prices are mostly idiosyncratic, as they are mainly driven by behavioral factors and are uncorrelated with the major classes of financial assets; nevertheless, their informational efficiency is still under debate. Consequently, many hedge funds and asset managers began to include cryptocurrencies in their portfolios, while the academic community spent considerable efforts in researching cryptocurrency trading, with emphasis on machine learning ML algorithms Fang et al.

This study examines the predictability and profitability of three major cryptocurrencies—bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin—using ML techniques; hence, it contributes to this recent stream of literature on cryptocurrencies. Bitcoin as a peer-to-peer P2P virtual currency was initially successful because it solves the double-spending problem with its cryptography-based technology that removes the need for a trusted third party.

Blockchain is the key technology behind bitcoin, which works as a public permissionless digital ledger, where transactions among users are recorded. Since no central authority exists, this ledger is replicable among participants nodes of the network, who collaboratively maintain it using dedicated software Yaga et al. Litecoin and ethereum were launched on October and August , respectively.

Litecoin has the same protocol as bitcoin, and has a supply capped at 84 million units. It was designed to save on the computing power required for the mining process so as to increase the overall processing speed, and to conduct transactions significantly faster, which is a particularly attractive feature in time-critical situations.

Ethereum is also a P2P network but unlike bitcoin and litecoin, its cryptocurrency token, called Ether in the finance literature this token is usually referred to as ethereum , has no maximum supply. Additionally, the ethereum protocol provides a platform that enables applications on its public blockchain such that any user can use it as a decentralized ledger. More specifically, it facilitates online contractual agreement applications smart contracts with minimal possibility of downtime, censorship, fraud, or third-party interference.

These characteristics help explain the interest that ethereum has gathered since its inception, making it the second most important cryptocurrency. The main purpose of this study is not to provide a new or improved ML method, compare several competing ML methods, nor study the predictive power of the variables in the input set. Instead, the main objective is to see if the profitability of ML-based trading strategies, commonly evidenced in the empirical literature, holds not only for bitcoin but also for ethereum and litecoin, even when market conditions change and within a more realistic framework where trading costs are included and no short selling is allowed.

Other studies have already partly addressed these issues; however, the originality of our paper comes from the combination of all these features, that is, from an overall analysis framework. Additionally, we support our conclusions by conducting a statistical and economic analysis of the trading strategies. Stated differently, changing market conditions means alternating between periods characterized by a strong bullish market, where most returns are in the upper-tail of the distribution, and periods of strong bearish markets, where most returns are in the lower-tail of the distribution see, e.

The remainder of the paper is structured as follows. Literature review Early research on bitcoin debated if it was in fact another type of currency or a pure speculative asset, with the majority of the authors supporting this last view on the grounds of its high volatility, extreme short-run returns, and bubble-like price behavior see e. This claim has been shifted to other well-implemented cryptocurrencies such as ethereum, litecoin, and ripple see e.

These determinants have been shown to be highly important even for more traditional markets. For instance, Wen et al. Kristoufek highlights the existence of a high correlation between search queries in Google Trends and Wikipedia and bitcoin prices. Kristoufek reinforces the previous findings and does not find any important correlation with fundamental variables such as the Financial Stress Index and the gold price in Swiss francs.

Polasik et al. Panagiotidis et al. In a more recent article, Panagiotidis et al. Ciaian et al. Zhu et al. Li and Wang find that in early market stages, bitcoin prices were driven by speculative investment and deviated from economic fundamentals. As the market matured, the price dynamics followed more closely the changes in economic factors, such as U. Dastgir et al. Baur et al. Bouri et al. Pyo and Lee find no relationship between bitcoin prices and announcements on employment rate, Producer Price Index, and CPI in the United States; however, their results suggest that bitcoin reacts to announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee on U.

That bitcoin prices are mainly driven by public recognition, as Li and Wang call it—measured by social media news, Google searches, Wikipedia views, Tweets, or comments in Facebook or specialized forums—was also investigated in the case of other cryptocurrencies. For instance, Kim et al. Phillips and Gorse use hidden Markov models based on online social media indicators to devise successful trading strategies on several cryptocurrencies.

Corbet et al. Sovbetov shows that factors such as market beta, trading volume, volatility, and attractiveness influence the weekly prices of bitcoin, ethereum, dash, litecoin, and monero. Phillips and Gorse investigate if the relationships between online and social media factors and the prices of bitcoin, ethereum, litecoin, and monero depend on the market regime; they find that medium-term positive correlations strengthen significantly during bubble-like regimes, while short-term relationships appear to be caused by particular market events, such as hacks or security breaches.

Accordingly, some researchers, such as Stavroyiannis and Babalos , study the hypothesis of non-rational behavior, such as herding, in the cryptocurrencies market. They highlight that investor sentiment is a good predictor of the price direction of cryptocurrencies and that cryptocurrencies can be used as a hedge during times of uncertainty; but during times of fear, they do not act as a suitable safe haven against equities.

The results indicate the presence of herding biases among investors of crypto assets and suggest that anchoring and recency biases, if present, are non-linear and environment-specific. In the same line, Chen et al. The authors conclude that during times of market distress e.

In another related strand of literature, several authors have directly studied the market efficiency of cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin. With different methodologies, Urquhart and Bariviera claim that bitcoin is inefficient, while Nadarajah and Chu and Tiwari et al. However, Urquhart and Bariviera also point out that after an initial transitory phase, as the market started to mature, bitcoin has been moving toward efficiency.

In the last three years, there has been an increasing interest on forecasting and profiting from cryptocurrencies with ML techniques. Table 1 summarizes several of those papers, presented in chronological order since the work of Madan et al. We do not intend to provide a complete list of papers for this strand of literature; instead, our aim is to contextualize our research and to highlight its main contributions.

For a comprehensive survey on cryptocurrency trading and many more references on ML trading, see, for example, Fang et al. Table 1 List of studies on machine learning applied to cryptocurrencies prices organized by chronological and alphabetical order Full size table In a nutshell, all these papers point out that independent of the period under analysis, data frequency, investment horizon, input set, type classification or regression , and method, ML models present high levels of accuracy and improve the predictability of prices and returns of cryptocurrencies, outperforming competing models such as autoregressive integrated moving averages and Exponential Moving Average.

In the competition between different ML models there is no unambiguous winner; however, the consensual conclusion is that ML-based strategies are better in terms of overall cumulative return, volatility, and Sharpe ratio than the passive strategy. However, most of these studies analyze only bitcoin, cover a period of steady upward price trend, and do not consider trading costs and short-selling restrictions. From the list in Table 1 , studies that are closer to the research conducted here are Ji et al.

The main differences between our research and the first paper are that we consider not only bitcoin but also, ethereum and litecoin, and we also consider trading costs. Meanwhile, the main differences with the second paper are that we study daily returns and use blockchain features in the input set instead of one-minute returns and technical indicators. Data and preliminary analysis The daily data, totaling 1, observations, on three major cryptocurrencies—bitcoin, ethereum, and litecoin—for the period from August 07, to March 03, come from two sources.

The sample begins one week after the inception of ethereum, the youngest of the three cryptocurrencies. Exchange trading information—the closing prices the last reported prices before UTC of the next day and the high and low prices during the last 24 h, the daily trading volume, and market capitalization—come from the CoinMarketCap site. These variables are denominated in U. Arguably these last two trading variables, especially volume, may help the forecasting returns see for instance Balcilar et al.

For each cryptocurrency, the dependent variables are the daily log returns, computed using the closing prices or the sign of these log returns. The overall input set is formed by 50 variables, most of them coming from the raw data after some transformation.

The first lag of the other exchange trading information and network information of the corresponding cryptocurrency are included in the input set, except if they fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root of the augmented Dickey—Fuller ADF test, in which case we use the lagged first difference of the variable. This differencing transformation is performed on seven variables.

The data set also includes seven deterministic day dummies, as it seems that the price dynamics of cryptocurrencies, especially bitcoin, may depend on the day of the week, Dorfleitner and Lung ; Aharon and Qadan ; Caporale and Plastun Table 2 presents the input set used in our ML experiments. Table 2 Initial input set for each cryptocurrency Full size table In this work, we use the three-sub-samples logic that is common in ML applications with a rolling window approach. The performance of the forecasts obtained in these observations is used to choose the set of variables and hyperparameters.

This set of observations is not exactly the validation sub-sample used in ML, since most observations are used both for training and for validation purposes e. Despite not being exactly the validation sub-sample, as usually understood in ML, it is close to it, since the returns in this sub-sample are the ones that are compared to the respective forecast for the purpose of choosing the set of variables and hyperparameters.

However, it is close to it since it is used to assess the quality of the models in new data. Although at first glance, looking at Fig. Then, in the first half of the validation sample, the prices show an explosive behavior, followed in the second half by a sudden and sharp decay. In the test sample there is an initial month of an upward movement and then a markedly negative trend. Roughly speaking, at the end of the test sample, the prices are about double the prices in the beginning of the validation sample.

During the overall sample period, from August 15, to March 03, , the daily mean returns are 0. The median returns are quite different across the three cryptocurrencies and the three subsamples. Table 3 Summary statistics on the returns of bitcoin, ethereum and litecoin Full size table As already documented in the literature, these cryptocurrencies are highly volatile.

This is evident from the relatively high standard deviations and the range length. The standard deviations range from 3. It is noteworthy that the dynamics of the volatility of ethereum, which is decreasing through the three periods, is different from that of the other two cryptocurrencies. Specifically, for bitcoin and litecoin, the volatility increases from the first to the second subsamples and decreases afterwards, reaching slightly higher values than in the training sample.

Overall, bitcoin is the least volatile among the three cryptocurrencies. The skewness is negative in the first and third sub-samples for bitcoin and in the third sub-sample for ethereum. All cryptocurrencies present excess kurtosis, especially during the training sub-sample.

The daily first-order autocorrelations are all positive in the first and second sub-samples and negative in the last one; however, only the autocorrelation of ethereum during the training sample, which assumes a value of 6. Overall, the autocorrelation coefficients are quite low, at 0. This implies that most of the time the daily returns do not have significant information that can be used to preview linearly the returns for the next day. A comparison of the previous statistics between sub-samples reveals several features.

First, the training period is characterized by a steady upward price trend although the volatility of returns is not substantially lower than in the latter periods, and in fact, for ethereum, the volatility in this initial period is higher than afterward. And, as with most other investments, if you reap capital gains in selling or trading cryptocurrencies, the government wants a piece of the profits.

On May 20, , the U. How exactly the IRS would tax proceeds—as capital gains or ordinary income—depends on how long the taxpayer held the cryptocurrency. Are Cryptocurrencies Safe Investments? Cryptocurrencies have attracted a reputation as unstable investments, due to high investor losses as a result of scams, hacks, and bugs. Although the underlying cryptography is generally secure, the technical complexity of using and storing crypto assets can be a major hazard to new users.

In addition to the market risks associated with speculative assets, cryptocurrency investors should be aware of the following risks: User risk: Unlike traditional finance, there is no way to reverse or cancel a cryptocurrency transaction after it has already been sent. By some estimates, about a fifth of all bitcoins are now inaccessible due to lost passwords or incorrect sending addresses. Regulatory risks: The regulatory status of some cryptocurrencies is still unclear, with many governments seeking to regulate them as securities, currencies, or both.

A sudden regulatory crackdown could make it difficult to sell cryptocurrencies, or cause a market-wide price drop. Counterparty risks: Many investors and merchants rely on exchanges or other custodians to store their cryptocurrency. Theft or loss by one of these third parties could result in the loss of one's entire investment. Management risks: Due to the lack of coherent regulations, there are few protections against deceptive or unethical management practices.

Many investors have lost large sums to management teams that failed to deliver a product. Programming risks: Many investment and lending platforms use automated smart contracts to control the movement of user deposits. An investor using one of these platforms assumes the risk that a bug or exploit in these programs could cause them to lose their investment.

Market Manipulation: Market manipulation remains a substantial problem in the cryptocurrency space, and some exchanges have been accused of manipulating prices or trading against their customers. Despite the speculative nature of the asset, some have been able to create substantial fortunes by taking on the risk of investing in early-stage cryptocurrencies. Advantages and Disadvantages of Cryptocurrency Cryptocurrencies were introduced with the intent to revolutionize financial infrastructure.

As with every revolution, however, there are tradeoffs involved. At the current stage of development for cryptocurrencies, there are many differences between the theoretical ideal of a decentralized system with cryptocurrencies and its practical implementation. Some advantages and disadvantages of cryptocurrencies are as follows. Advantages Cryptocurrencies represent a new, decentralized paradigm for money.

In this system, centralized intermediaries, such as banks and monetary institutions, are not necessary to enforce trust and police transactions between two parties. Thus, a system with cryptocurrencies eliminates the possibility of a single point of failure, such as a large bank, setting off a cascade of crises around the world, such as the one that was triggered in by the failure of institutions in the United States.

Cryptocurrencies promise to make it easier to transfer funds directly between two parties, without the need for a trusted third party like a bank or a credit card company. Such decentralized transfers are secured by the use of public keys and private keys and different forms of incentive systems, such as proof of work or proof of stake. Because they do not use third-party intermediaries, cryptocurrency transfers between two transacting parties are faster as compared to standard money transfers.

Flash loans in decentralized finance are a good example of such decentralized transfers. These loans, which are processed without backing collateral, can be executed within seconds and are used in trading. Cryptocurrency investments can generate profits. The remittance economy is testing one of cryptocurrency's most prominent use cases. Currently, cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin serve as intermediate currencies to streamline money transfers across borders.

Thus, a fiat currency is converted to Bitcoin or another cryptocurrency , transferred across borders, and, subsequently, converted to the destination fiat currency. This method streamlines the money transfer process and makes it cheaper. Disadvantages Though they claim to be an anonymous form of transaction, cryptocurrencies are actually pseudonymous.

This opens up possibilities of governments or federal authorities tracking the financial transactions of ordinary citizens. Cryptocurrencies have become a popular tool with criminals for nefarious activities such as money laundering and illicit purchases. The case of Dread Pirate Roberts , who ran a marketplace to sell drugs on the dark web, is already well known.

Cryptocurrencies have also become a favorite of hackers who use them for ransomware activities. In theory, cryptocurrencies are meant to be decentralized, their wealth distributed between many parties on a blockchain.

In reality, ownership is highly concentrated. One of the conceits of cryptocurrencies is that anyone can mine them using a computer with an Internet connection. However, mining popular cryptocurrencies requires considerable energy, sometimes as much energy as entire countries consume.

The expensive energy costs coupled with the unpredictability of mining have concentrated mining among large firms whose revenues running into the billions of dollars. Though cryptocurrency blockchains are highly secure, other crypto repositories, such as exchanges and wallets, can be hacked. Many cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets have been hacked over the years, sometimes resulting in millions of dollars worth of "coins" stolen.

Cryptocurrencies traded in public markets suffer from price volatility. Some economists thus consider cryptocurrencies to be a short-lived fad or speculative bubble. How Do You Buy Cryptocurrencies? Any investor can purchase cryptocurrency from popular crypto exchanges such as Coinbase, apps such as Cash App, or through brokers. Another popular way to invest in cryptocurrencies is through financial derivatives, such as CME's Bitcoin futures, or through other instruments, such as Bitcoin trusts and Bitcoin ETFs.

What Is the Point of Cryptocurrency? Cryptocurrencies are a new paradigm for money. Their promise is to streamline existing financial architecture to make it faster and cheaper. Their technology and architecture decentralize existing monetary systems and make it possible for transacting parties to exchange value and money independently of intermediary institutions such as banks. Can You Generate Cryptocurrency? Cryptocurrencies are generated by mining.

For example, Bitcoin is generated using Bitcoin mining. The process involves downloading software that contains a partial or full history of transactions that have occurred in its network. Though anyone with a computer and an Internet connection can mine cryptocurrency, the energy- and resource-intensive nature of mining means that large firms dominate the industry. What Are the Most Popular Cryptocurrencies? Bitcoin is by far the most popular cryptocurrency followed by other cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Binance Coin, Solana, and Cardano.

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Oct 01,  · A cryptocurrency is a digital asset that can circulate without the centralized authority of a bank or government. 26 rows · Find a list of top cryptocurrencies and their prices in real time, including percentage change, charts, history, volume and more. Jun 06,  · Cryptocurrency is decentralized digital money that’s based on blockchain technology.